Payback percentage · a working demonstration Simulated

The tribal floor
and the Strip floor
are the same number.

Pick your denominations, from the penny game up to the hundred dollar machine. Same bankroll, same bet, same number of spins. The only thing that changes between them is the payback percentage. Run it and watch how little that number decides about the next forty minutes, and how completely it decides everything after that.

Seven demonstrations, in order
    00

    The random source

    Every number on this page comes from the generator picked here. Real machines run a PRNG on purpose, because a regulator has to be able to seize it, re-seed it and replay it. You cannot audit atmospheric noise.

    Same seed, same session, every time.
    01

    One session

    The way you will actually experience a slot machine: once, for about as long as a lunch break.

    Pick the machines on your floor
    Your machine
    Pick the exact denomination and the exact bet you would actually put through it.
    Payback
    House edge per dollar
    Expected loss per hour
    Bankroll lasts
    Spins it buys

    This location, denomination by denomination

    Slot hold by Nevada reporting area — long-run average against 2025

    Two things in that chart are worth more than the headline numbers. The first is that Downtown Las Vegas, long assumed to be the cheaper alternative to the Strip, now holds more than the Strip does. The second is that ten of the eleven areas keep more of every dollar today than they did on average across the previous two decades. North Shore Lake Tahoe is the only one moving the other way.

    The 96% figure people quote for Las Vegas is real, but it is not a floor average anywhere. It is what nickel machines return on the Boulder Strip and what quarters return in North Las Vegas, both locals markets. The Strip floor averages 92.10% and a compacted tribal floor in Connecticut averages 91.85%. Those are close to the same number, which means the line that actually divides the country is tourists against regulars rather than Nevada against everywhere else.

    One caveat travels with every figure on this page. Regulators report reel slots, video poker and video keno together inside each denomination, and video poker returns far more than a reel game. It is concentrated in nickels and quarters, which is why some of the ladders below bend rather than climb: on the Strip, quarters report 89.06% while nickels report 91.62%. A nickel reel slot is not paying 96% anywhere. A bank of nickel video poker sitting in the same denomination bucket is what lifts the average.

    Same on all eight, so only RTP differs.
    400 spins ≈ 40 minutes.
    Off = fair test. On = the real floor.
    0
    Sessions run this visit
    0
    Times the top machine finished first
    0
    Times the bottom machine finished first
    02

    A few thousand sessions

    One session proves nothing either way. So run a few thousand and count who finishes on top.

    If the machines were identical, pure luck would put each one in first place 12.5% of the time. Everything above that line is what the extra payback percentage actually buys you inside one session.

    How often each machine finished first

    Top machine finished 1st
    Top machine finished dead last
    Bottom machine beat the top machine
    Coin flip: 50%
    Top machine sessions that ended broke

    Average money left at the end

    Here the payback percentage shows up precisely as advertised, in the average. Nobody gets to play the average. You play one session, once, and land somewhere in the spread.

    03

    The long run

    The advertised number is a property of the machine's whole life, not a forecast for yours.

    Return actually paid, against spins played (log scale)

    The dotted lines are the advertised numbers. Notice where the noise finally settles down, and notice that the static on the left-hand side of this chart is every session you will ever sit through in your life.
    04

    What playing up costs

    Payback percentage is a rate. What it's worth in dollars is decided by the size of the bet it's applied to.

    Seat A — the penny game, base bet

    Seat B — the $100 machine, max bet

    Seat A — expected loss per hour
    Seat B — expected loss per hour
    Seat A — bankroll lasts
    Seat B — bankroll lasts

    The whole ladder at the current bet level

    05

    Does the generator matter?

    Four sources, tested side by side on two separate questions. Does the output look random, and can you guess what comes next. Those are not the same question, and only one source here answers yes to the first and no to the second.

    Consecutive pairs, plotted against each other

    Watching MT19937 hand over its state

    This is the part that separates statistical quality from unpredictability. Below, one Mersenne Twister runs as the machine. A second one watches 624 of its outputs, reverses the tempering step on each, loads the result as its own state, and then calls every subsequent number before the first one produces it.

    This does not transfer to a cabinet on a casino floor. You would need 624 consecutive raw 32-bit values, and a machine gives you reel positions instead, from a generator that keeps cycling whether or not anyone is playing. It has still happened: a group working from reverse-engineered firmware on older Aristocrat machines timed spins off a predicted stream for several years before arrests in 2014. The countermeasure is not a better paytable, it's a generator whose next output is not a function of the ones you have already seen.

    The chi-square column is the test most people assume is the whole job: does every value show up about as often as every other. The two good sources land somewhere around 63, which is what sixty-four bins of real noise looks like. The broken one comes back near zero, and that is worse than a high number, not better. A full-period generator visits every one of its states exactly once, so its histogram comes out flatter than chance could ever manage. Bins that even are a fingerprint, not a clean bill of health, which is why the check here fails in both directions.

    The scatter plots are the other half. Each dot is one draw against the draw that followed it. Real noise fills the square. The broken generator collapses onto a handful of straight lines, because 65,536 states is small enough to see and each state determines the next exactly. Once you know two spins you know every spin after them. That is what certification standards are actually looking for when they test serial correlation and lattice structure instead of just counting bins.

    MT19937 is the one worth sitting with. It passes both columns cleanly. Its period is 2^19937, which is a number with six thousand digits, and it was good enough to become the default generator in Python, Ruby, PHP, R, MATLAB and the C++ standard library. Nothing in any statistical test above catches it. It is still fully predictable, and the section below does it live.

    The honest answer for the rest of this page: swap between hardware entropy, Mulberry32 and MT19937 and nothing visible changes. The charts are identical within noise. Every argument this page makes about payback percentage survives the choice of generator intact, which is exactly why regulators are free to insist on the auditable one.
    06

    The bingo game under the reels

    In tribal casinos without a Class III compact, the cabinet that looks like a slot machine is legally a bingo game. Everything above this section stops applying.

    The Indian Gaming Regulatory Act sorts games into three classes. Class III covers house-banked games, real slot machines included, and a tribe needs a negotiated compact with the state to offer them. Class II covers bingo and games similar to bingo, and needs no compact. So where a compact is absent or narrow, the floor fills with machines that satisfy the legal definition of bingo while looking and sounding exactly like the machines in section 01.

    Underneath, a central server deals every player at the bank a bingo card and draws balls. Your card is checked for patterns, your prize is decided, and only then does the cabinet pick reel symbols that add up to the amount you already won. The reels are a readout, not a mechanism. There is no paytable behind them in the sense used everywhere else on this page.

    You share one ball draw with all of them.
    Prizes are scaled so payback lands at 100 minus this.

    Your card

    Balls drawn from the central server

    What the cabinet displays

    Measured payback across the bank
    Not posted anywhere on the machine
    Your share of the top award
    Games where your card paid something
    Games simulated for calibration
    Change the number of players and run it again. Your ordinary pattern prizes barely move, because those depend only on your own card against the draw. Your share of the top award moves inversely with the crowd, because there is exactly one of it per game. Run it with a nearly empty bank and something else shows up: with only a few cards in play, often nobody makes a qualifying pattern at all and the top award simply goes unclaimed that game. On a Class III machine nobody else at the casino affects your outcome in any way.

    The two classes, side by side

     Class III slotClass II bingo machine
    What it legally isA slot machineA bingo game with an electronic aid
    Needs a state compactYesNo
    What decides your outcomeYour spin, independentlyA ball draw shared with the bank
    Who you are playing againstThe houseThe other players, plus the rake
    What the reels doDetermine the resultNarrate a result already decided
    Primary regulatorState gaming board, per compactNational Indian Gaming Commission
    Minimum paybackSet by compact or state lawNo federal minimum
    Payback publishedOften, by denominationGenerally not

    Worth being clear about what this does and does not say. Plenty of tribal casinos run genuine Class III floors under compact, and those machines are mathematically identical to the ones in Nevada, so sections 01 through 04 apply to them unchanged. Class II is what fills the gap where a compact is absent or narrow. The tell is on the screen: a Class II cabinet has to show you the bingo card it is playing, usually shrunk into a corner, and often a daub button that does nothing but let you press something.